By Mike Ward
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Controversial proposals to reform Texas' probation system could save
taxpayers nearly $49 million during the next two years, far more than previously predicted, two new state reports showed Thursday.
According to the analyses of Senate Bill 1266 by the Legislative Budget
Board, the savings would come from thousands of fewer criminals being sent to prison — 1,700 during the next two years,
more than 5,000 by 2010 — and from fewer people staying on probation as long as they do now. That would allow closer
supervision to be concentrated on those probationers who need it most.
In all, 118,000 fewer offenders would
be on probation in Texas during the next five years, thanks to a new limit of five years on probation terms, which could be
extended by a judge.
Though a fiscal analysis of a similar House reform bill, HB 2193, has
not yet been completed, House leaders said Thursday that they expect their bill will provide similar, perhaps even larger,
savings.
"That's big, really good news," said House Corrections Committee Chairman
Jerry Madden, R-Richardson, echoing sentiments of the Senate bill's author, Criminal Justice Committee Chairman John Whitmire.
Whitmire, D-Houston, said he was "pleasantly surprised" by the estimated
savings.
"It shows we were right in our thinking on these changes, and that there
are a lot of people in Texas who are on supervision now for long terms who probably don't need to be," he said. "If we focus
our resources on the probationers who need the supervision, and not keep filling up our prisons with technical revocations,
we can improve the system and make Texas a safer place."
Last year, more than 10,000 probationers were sent to prison for violating
the rules of their probation, so-called technical revocations.
A primary goal of both the Senate and House bills is to more closely
supervise probationers in their local communities and provide alternate means of punishing them — time in a local jail,
house arrest, additional counseling and self-help programs — without sending them to a state prison.
It generally costs about $40 a day to house someone in a Texas prison,
while the basic cost of probation is about $2 a day.
Whitmire and other legislative leaders involved in crafting the reforms
have argued for months that many offenders are kept on probation too long.
Shorter terms of probation with more intensive supervision — and
more community-based rehabilitation programs — will be cheaper and more effective ways to change behavior, they insist.
That will leave prison beds available for violent-crime and habitual offenders who need to be kept off the streets for public
safety.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who has supported the concept of trying to rehabilitate
more people without sending them to a prison, said he had not seen the new analyses. But if the savings figure proves true,
he suggested that perhaps the money could be put back into enhancing substance-abuse treatment programs for offenders.
"I think we'd like to see the money saved put back into (corrections)
and probation programs," Madden said. "Will that happen? I'm not going to count on it."
The state spends about $2.5 billion a year on criminal justice.
Despite Thursday's elation over the favorable analyses, some prosecutors
pooh-poohed the predicted savings. They have questioned whether the reforms will work as planned or will end up sending more
people to prison as judges pick the certainty of incarceration over uncertainty of unproven programs.
"It's a complete invention," Williamson County District Attorney John
Bradley said. "I don't think it's a reliable fiscal (analysis)."
Echoing sentiments of other prosecutors who have been at the Capitol
in recent days lobbying against elements of both bills, Bradley said the analyses make assumptions that may or may not prove
out in coming years. One is that fewer people will end up in prison for violating the terms of their probation, so fewer people
will be on probation statewide.
"If you change probation (as the bills propose) prosecutors are going
to be more likely to recommend prison," he said. "That's more prison beds we'll need."
In addition to the projected savings, one report also warns that some
of the changes proposed in the Senate bill on how repeat drunken drivers are punished will put Texas out of compliance with
federal law. That would force the state to make up $59.8 million in federal highway funds that could not be spent on congestion
relief and mobility projects.
Whitmire said Thursday that although he disagrees with that conclusion,
he plans to resolve that issue before the bill comes to a vote.
